For over three weeks, Chinese warships have been patrolling near Australia’s coastline, coming within 200 miles of Sydney and conducting live-fire drills alongside New Zealand—an unprecedented show of military force.
These exercises, which took place without formal notice, have caused deep unease in both countries. No longer confined to the distant waters of the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait—where Beijing’s military aggression has intensified under Xi Jinping—China’s naval presence is now an undeniable reality closer to home.
Simultaneously, Chinese warships have been spotted near Vietnam and Taiwan, further asserting Beijing’s growing dominance in the Pacific. While such maneuvers routinely unsettle US allies, China remains defiant, arguing that its actions comply with international law. State media have even suggested that Western nations should grow accustomed to the sight of Chinese warships in their waters.
US Allies Question Washington’s Commitment
In the past, nations in the region found reassurance in their strong ties with the United States. However, that confidence has been shaken—particularly after former President Donald Trump’s highly publicized confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, followed by Trump’s controversial decision to halt US military aid to Ukraine.
The abrupt breakdown in US-Ukraine relations has intensified concerns among Pacific nations. If Washington is willing to pull support from Ukraine—effectively emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin—what does that mean for the US commitment to countering Chinese aggression in Asia?
Trump’s transactional foreign policy approach—once compared by Singapore’s defense minister to a “landlord seeking rent”—has only heightened uncertainty.
“It raises real questions about whether the US will remain committed to regional security,” said Collin Koh, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). “And even if it does, what will Trump ask for in return?”
For decades, US allies have relied on Washington’s security guarantees, allowing them to limit their own defense spending. But now, experts suggest it may be time for countries like Australia and New Zealand to reassess their budgets and strengthen regional alliances, as the Trump administration’s “America First” stance takes center stage.
A ‘Test of Resolve’ in the Pacific
In response to China’s military maneuvers, Australia has taken steps to ensure the world is aware of Beijing’s actions. The Australian Navy and surveillance aircraft have been tracking Chinese warships, issuing daily updates on their locations.
Defense Minister Richard Marles emphasized that Australia is analyzing the data to understand China’s intentions. Meanwhile, China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, dismissed concerns, insisting that Beijing poses no threat. He even hinted that more such naval operations should be expected in the future.
“As a major power in this region, it is normal for China to send its vessels to different parts of the Pacific for various activities,” Xiao told Australia’s ABC News.
Across the Pacific, in Washington, Trump was sending his own message to US allies in Europe, pressing them to increase their defense spending.
Trump’s meeting with Zelensky had initially been planned as a signing ceremony for a mineral resources deal that would allow the US to recoup some of the money it had spent aiding Ukraine. However, after the meeting collapsed, Trump told Zelensky via his Truth Social platform to “come back when he is ready for peace.”
By cutting off military aid to Ukraine, Trump was attempting to push European nations to shoulder more responsibility, say experts.
“He believes they have been free-riding on US security for decades,” said Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
That strategy appeared to pay off when the European Union announced a new plan to borrow €150 billion ($158 billion) to boost its defense spending and strengthen support for Ukraine.
However, Dean warns that Trump’s approach ignores a key issue: the sustainability of any peace agreement with Russia.
“It seems like he wants peace at any cost rather than a peace that is fair and lasting,” Dean said. “The real question is: What will Trump be willing to trade away?”
AUKUS and the Future of US Alliances
Even before Trump’s fallout with Zelensky, Australia’s growing concerns over China had renewed focus on AUKUS—the trilateral security pact between Australia, the US, and the UK.
Yet, doubts about the deal’s stability arose when a British journalist asked Trump about AUKUS, only for the former president to respond, “What does that mean?” The awkward moment was later dismissed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who blamed the misunderstanding on accents.
According to Dean, Trump’s lack of familiarity with the acronym isn’t necessarily a bad sign. The deal enjoys strong support among his top advisors and has already secured major commitments, including Australia’s first $500 million payment to help expand US submarine production.
Trump, known for prioritizing financial benefits in foreign policy, is likely to favor deals like AUKUS.
“He’s focused on making money for the US and striking better deals,” Dean said. “AUKUS is exactly the kind of agreement he would support.”
However, Dean warns that European allies should take note:
“If Trump sees Australia investing in its own security, he’ll ask—why can’t you?”
‘No Tolerance for Free Riders’
Trump’s hardline approach to alliance commitments has sent shockwaves through US partners worldwide.
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba struck a careful tone when asked about the Trump-Zelensky dispute, stating he had “no intention of taking sides.” However, he stressed Japan’s commitment to maintaining US involvement and unity among the G7 nations.
“Today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia,” Ishiba warned. “We must increase our deterrence to prevent war.”
Japan has already faced growing military tensions with China, including last year’s entry of a Chinese aircraft carrier into its territorial waters for the first time. Meanwhile, South Korea, another key US ally, has been closely watching the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine, wary of potential shifts in Washington’s priorities.
Trump has repeatedly called for South Korea to pay more for the US troops stationed on its soil. During a speech to Congress, he issued another veiled warning, claiming that both friends and foes had taken advantage of the US for too long.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo acknowledged the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape but remained confident in US support.
“I believe the US won’t abandon the Indo-Pacific region because it’s in their core interest,” he said. However, he also noted that Taiwan understands the importance of balancing values with national interests—a nod to Trump’s transactional approach.
Experts argue that Trump’s administration has made it clear: the US has no patience for allies who fail to pull their weight.
“The US isn’t abandoning its partners,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at RSIS. “But it is prioritizing the most capable ones.”
With China’s latest military posturing in the Pacific, that message is becoming clearer than ever.
Source: CNN
